After the price of bitcoin fell on the 9th. By March, the $50,000 mark had been passed, any drop in the price of bitcoin was quickly bought up by institutional investors, and the balance of the BTC whale has steadily increased in recent months.
4 hour chart BTC/USDT. Source: TradingView
What’s next for the bitcoin price?
In a recent report, Ben Lilly, an analyst at Jarvis Labs, pointed out that bitcoin’s price movement last week was two steps forward, one step back, and that the price increase was accompanied by four 5% declines.
According to Lilly, bitcoin’s price action is a good sign of healthy profit taking, as vertical prices are only healthy when all-time highs, also known as price discovery, are exceeded.
To get a better idea of where the price might be headed, Lilly noted that portfolios between 100 and 1,000 BTC were up about 63,000 BTC on the 28th. February’s holdings, suggesting that these portfolios have been building up since the fall and preparing for a higher price.
According to Lilly, this class of scholarships had the best timing for the 2017 rally.
Number of BTC accumulation addresses. Source: Glassnode
Another bullish indicator that Lilly points out is the strong accumulation that has taken place since the price of BTC broke through the $20,000 barrier and has not slowed since.
The last time we saw such aggressive accumulation was in August 2017. The peak of this market cycle was not reached until four months later.
Lilly further explained that it is almost common for the price of bitcoin to experience random dips after reaching a new high, but they do not change the upward trend much.
So, to avoid confusion about what we’re trying to say with these diagrams….. Bitcoin has a place to work here. If he decides to leave, he’ll leave.
Equity market exits support the bullish narrative
A recent report by Decentrader co-founder Philip Swift on Lilly’s bullish sentiment points to a leak in bitcoin trading in recent months. As seen in the chart below, Coinbase and Bitstamp have seen significant declines in their exchange balances since mid-December 2020.
Bitcoin balances on exchanges. Source: Glass transition
The report points out that the drop in the number of BTC available is due to individuals and institutions taking bitcoins off the exchanges to store them cold. This in turn reduces the supply of liquidity available in the market for a quick sale and reduces changes in quick sales.
Swift discovered that much of the BTC taken from the PBX was converted to WBTC and put into the DeFi protocols. This reduces the bullish narrative somewhat, as the tokens have not been completely withdrawn from circulation and placed in cold storage, meaning that liquidity has not actually been reduced.
Another interesting signal mentioned by Decentrader is comparing bitcoins held for one or two years with bitcoins held for three years or more.
In recent weeks, BTC, which has been owned by investors for less than three years, has begun to sell off as short-term holders begin to take their profits. While these levels are low, bitcoin investors who have held out for more than three years have actually been hoarding lately, and according to Swift, this indicates that bitcoin likely has much more upside potential in its current bull-run.
Percentage of bitcoin offerings that were last active more than a year ago, more than two years ago, and more than three years ago. Source: Glass transition
Looking at this chart, we can see where we are compared to the previous cycle in 2017, when these HODL lines behaved similarly….. is approaching about the middle of the cycle in our eyes.
For David Lifchitz, chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, the performance of the bitcoin price between February 22. and 11. Mars to form a classic head and handle pattern, which technical analysis says is a bullish pattern. Mr. Lifchitz explained that the price decline, which began on 11… The March performance tipped the scales for those who monetized a 10 percent gain, from $45,000 to $57,000, according to Lifchitz.
According to Lifchitz, a soft bounce at or below $52,000 and an upward bounce form a bowl-shaped handle. A move beyond the edge of the $58,000 cup would open the door for a further rise in the price of bitcoin.
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